Following the rapid overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by Islamist rebels, Syria continues to face significant instability. The interim administration, under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa, is struggling with increasing security issues, such as fierce resistance from Assad’s remaining supporters. Although the fall of Assad’s repressive regime was a pivotal moment in Syria’s 13-year conflict, achieving lasting peace remains a complex challenge.
The interim government, primarily made up of individuals who gained influence from opposition areas such as Idlib in the northwest, has taken over a nation left divided and ravaged by prolonged conflict. The elimination of Assad-era institutions, including the military and the Baath Party, has led to the displacement of countless former regime members and supporters. A significant number of these individuals have declined to accept the new government’s authority, contributing to instability that jeopardizes the delicate administration.
The transitional government, composed largely of figures who rose to prominence from opposition strongholds like Idlib in the northwest, has inherited a fractured country devastated by years of conflict. The removal of Assad-era power structures, including the army and the Baath Party, has displaced hundreds of thousands of former regime officials and supporters. Many of these individuals have refused to reconcile with the new government, fueling unrest that threatens to destabilize the fragile administration.
In the periods following Assad’s exit, his supporters have become a major rebel force. These leftovers of the former regime, many deeply rooted in Syria’s military, intelligence, and political structures, have utilized their existing networks to coordinate armed opposition. This revolt has been especially active in the coastal regions of Latakia and Tartous, traditional strongholds of the Assad lineage and residence to a substantial portion of Syria’s Alawite minority.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights recently highlighted a fatal ambush in the province of Latakia, where gunmen attacked government troops trying to detain a former Assad official. This assault resulted in the deaths of at least 13 security members and sparked a surge of violence throughout the area. By the next day, confrontations had intensified, leading to more than 120 fatalities—a clear indication of the difficulties confronting the interim administration.
The Institute for the Study of War, a research entity, has cautioned that Assad loyalists are poised to create some of the most efficient insurgent units in Syria. Their knowledge of military strategies and capacity to use pre-existing networks provide them a strategic edge in orchestrating assaults against the new administration. For interim President Sharaa, this escalating rebellion constitutes the most formidable barrier to solidifying power and maintaining national security.
The Institute for the Study of War, a research organization, has warned that Assad loyalists are likely to form some of the most effective insurgent cells in Syria. Their familiarity with military tactics and their ability to utilize established networks give them a strategic advantage in coordinating attacks against the new government. For interim President Sharaa, this growing insurgency represents the most significant obstacle to consolidating authority and ensuring national security.
The rebel activities in Latakia and Tartous have intensified the friction between Syria’s Sunni-led interim government and the Alawite minority, a Shia sect that was the core of Assad’s administration. The Alawites, who held influence and advantages during Assad’s rule, have suffered considerable setbacks following its downfall. Despite Sharaa’s promises to honor Syria’s varied religious groups, many now feel excluded and under threat.
The insurgent activity in Latakia and Tartous has further strained relations between Syria’s Sunni-led transitional government and the Alawite minority, a Shia offshoot that formed the backbone of Assad’s regime. The Alawites, who enjoyed privileges and power under the Assad government, have faced significant losses in the aftermath of its collapse. Many now feel marginalized and targeted, despite Sharaa’s assurances that his administration will respect Syria’s diverse religious communities.
The scenario in Syria’s southern region continues to be unstable. Despite an agreement struck with Druze forces earlier this week to reduce hostilities, the government still encounters opposition from multiple factions nationwide. Given that various areas are governed by rival groups supported by external powers, the interim government’s influence is both restricted and divided.
The upcoming economic and diplomatic hurdles
The economic and diplomatic challenges ahead
Beyond the immediate security threats, Syria’s transitional government is contending with a dire economic situation. Years of war have left nine out of ten Syrians living in poverty, and the country remains under crippling international sanctions imposed during Assad’s rule. Sharaa’s administration has made lifting these sanctions a priority, viewing it as essential to rebuilding the economy and gaining legitimacy on the global stage.
A Nation Fragmented
A country divided
Despite the fall of Assad, Syria remains a patchwork of competing factions and external influences. The transitional government’s control is far from absolute, with various groups holding sway over different parts of the country. These factions, often backed by foreign powers with competing interests, add another layer of complexity to Syria’s fragile political landscape.
For Sharaa, the task of unifying the country is as much about earning the trust of its people as it is about overcoming the insurgent threat. His administration has called on former members of Assad’s security forces to surrender their weapons and accept reconciliation, but progress has been slow. “We are keeping an eye on everyone, but we don’t want to create the impression that we are hunting them down,” said a high-ranking official in the transitional government. This cautious approach reflects the delicate balance the new leadership must strike as it attempts to restore order without alienating key segments of the population.
The ousting of Bashar al-Assad was a pivotal moment in Syria’s history, yet the transition to peace and stability is riddled with challenges. From the insurgent dangers presented by Assad’s supporters to the profound splits among Syria’s religious and ethnic groups, the future remains uncertain. The interim administration must maneuver through these difficulties while attending to the urgent demands of a populace ravaged by over ten years of conflict.
Simultaneously, Syria’s leaders are under increasing international examination as they strive to remove sanctions and obtain the necessary support for reconstruction. For the transitional government, success will rely on effectively tackling the roots of unrest, promoting inclusivity, and showing a true dedication to moving away from the authoritarian practices of the past.
At the same time, Syria’s leaders face mounting international scrutiny as they seek to lift sanctions and secure the support needed to rebuild the country. For the transitional government, success will depend on its ability to address the root causes of unrest, foster inclusivity, and demonstrate a genuine commitment to breaking from the authoritarian practices of the past.
As clashes continue and tensions rise, Syria’s future hangs in the balance. The coming months will be critical for Sharaa’s government as it works to consolidate power, restore security, and lay the foundation for a more stable and prosperous nation.
